Deforestation and Avoided DeforestationThis section addresses deforestation and avoided deforestation, that is areas of primary growth forest that have not been cut down or overly disturbed this is the last part of the Carbonators Series. ReforestationStopping Deforestation cuts CO2 emissions, cutting the world's deforestation in half could reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 3 billion tonnes per year or more. Globally it is estimated that 4.4 million trees are harvested or destroyed every day or 1.5 billion+ per year. Over 1 billion of those trees are not replaced. A concentrated reforestation plan with an emphasis on tropical regions could potentially reduce annual emissions at about ten times the emissions reductions that would be achieved during the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.Initiatives on Forests and Climate are coming from the UK, the US, Germany, Brazil, New Zealand, Japan and Indonesia and are receiving financial support from such institutions such as the World Bank which will support new forest planting, work to limit the destruction of the world's remaining forests, and promote more sustainable forest management. Programs that promote sustainable forest management but also help to diversify the economic base of often indigenous forest-dependent communities, Almost 20 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions come from clearing the world's forests, second only to emissions from burning fossil fuels to produce electricity and more than all of the world's emissions from transport put together. Avoided DeforestationAvoided deforestation was not heavily weighted in the initial Kyoto Treaty and so has to function in tandem with other programs in order to constitute a CDM project which would allow these resources to be securitized and then monetized as carbon offset credits.   This will probably be corrected in the 2012 installment of Kyoto as standing tropical rainforests play a more significant role in the carbon cycle than their temperate counterparts. Avoided deforestation can also be paired with certain specified industries in order to securitize the carbon offset credit.   These industries include but are not limited to forestry companies involved in the harvesting and planting of timber resources, paper manufacturers, government agencies involved in reforestation, oil refineries and airlines.This kind of pairing functions as a [CDM] enabler and activates the carbon offset credit potential for standing trees (Avoided Deforestation).  It is calculated on the number of tonnes of carbon each tree can put back into the ground on an annual basis.   The weight assigned to tropical forests in these parings is likely to increase due to measurement based science results that have recently been published and are currently being considered. Having some kind of emissions trading scheme is a practical and immediate action that can be taken. Active reforestation programs functioning in conjunction with CDM pairing schemes create an active economic imperative for both preserving standing forests and planting new ones. Something few can object too even if they object to the details of various offset trading schemes that comply with the general outline of the Kyoto Accords version one. Version two will arrive in 2012 at which time the additional science which has come in will be taken into account along with a political update.
Nearly Carbon Neutral Transport

Say Goodbye!

Clean Development MechanismsCDM's can create a framework to simplify the develop of salable carbon credits. By directly allocating credits to some activities which reduce carbon output or remove atmospheric carbon dioxide it creates a more measurable system which creates the potential for the securitization of carbon offset credits. Part of the CDM system allows for a multiplier effect when carbon sequestration is coupled with another component allowing some systems with carbon sequestration potential that are not fully defined to particpate in sequestration programs. Implementation & VerificationVerification, auditing, measurement and definition. A carbon offset credit is a contract between parties. One has verifiable assets to sell and another has a need to take delivery. At this time approximately 98% of all carbon contracts are delivered to an end user. Various CDM pairings and variations on this theme create a non-standard trading environment which has lead to the establishment of several climate or greenhouse gas based futures exchanges which have created securities which correspond closely to standards already practiced in the derivatives market. One of these greenhouse gas exchanges, the Chicago Climate Exchange, was founded by one of the original creators of the derivative security, Dr. Richard Sandor of the University of Chicago. Futures-like exchanges for green house gas offsets seek to increase market liquidity by creating verifiable new sources of carbon offsets under the audited general terms of Kyoto. Greater market liquidity, contract standards and velocity will help increase market acceptance of this type of security leading to more widespread contract trading and a new profitable derivatives market where none existed before. Until a zero emissions state is reached, optimistically in 100 years or so, Carbon Trading will allow many countries and entities both civic state and local to securitize, monetize and trade their carbon resources once they have established proper title to them. This could create considerable unforeseen revenue streams that may have to be incorporated into development trusts to prevent fights from breaking out between various government departments on who receives these windfalls. The model of Norway's national trust for north sea oil revenues is a model of a National Trust system that 'works' while Gt. Britain's is an example of too free a market 'Laissez Faire.' Other more localized vehicles may be developed depending on how ownership of the carbon resources are adjudicated.Revenue PotentialOnce a recognized carbon credit is established it acquires the vintage of the year in which it was created. If not sold it accumulates vintages along with a concomitant change is price for each year that it remains unsold. If a carbon offset was created vintage 2001 for 1 million tonnes when the price of carbon was say $4/tonne and not sold until 2011 when the price of the offset had climbed to $20/tonne then the 10 years of accumulated vintages could be sold from the 'carbon bank' for 10 years accumulation at $20 million a year for ten years or $200 million with the accumulated vintages. Enough moneys are involved to make financial markets take notice. Size MattersThere are economies of scale in creating large projects that are carbon aggregators. A carbon aggregator is a legal vehicle that combines diverse carbon offsets into one large managed portfolio filled with different vintages and sized blocks of assets. These aggregators can be the tools which actively trade carbon offsets on behalf of their owners. Think of it as a kind of carbon asset or offset investment bank. Ownership
All in all much of the potential for these kind of carbon projects lie in areas that affect over 1 billion people. The ownership of many of the potential carbon offset rights has not necessarily been assigned by default to the people that own or live on the land.

Watch that Water

Future view of New York City; Courtesy of Alexis RockmanSome Carbon plans actually get out on the ground and count trees and measure CO2. New York City's plan makes use of remote sensing and aerial mapping. Ground proofing, that is getting out there on the ground to count and measure is a good way to check the accuracy of your results will apparently be done later. The agenda is to complete New York City's greenhouse gas audit by the end of March and come up with ways to reduce NYC's carbon signature by 30% by 2030.How? Well they are working on it, but it must be noted that the initial greenhouse gas audit covers only city operations and not the rest of New York. NYC accounts for about 1% of global emissions and the city government operations including CUNY account for 15% of that. In order to get results quickly the City has decided to address primarily 'Hotspots' to maintain a high a high public profile for programs.

 

Rick Aggarwala


Rohit (Rick) Aggarwala the 'Mayors Sustainability Guy' who was seconded from the Deputy Mayor Dan Doctorow's office to head this program, said to the assembly "No one has set a 2030 goal like ours" and that while NYC is already "the most carbon efficient city in the US," largely thanks to its public transit system we will use technology to help meet our goals. Some of the technology he noted that we will need to achieve these goals in 2030 and 2050 has yet to be developed.

Urban HazeThe CO2 inventory is overseen by Robert Dickenson from Columbia University's Earth Institute. Mr Aggarwala noted that certain assumptions were being made in the methodology of the audit. Half the emissions of aircraft taking off from regional airports are counted, truck emissions are hard to calculate and the rough breakdown of CO2 signatures in NYC is 60% from Buildings and 20% from vehicular transport. In the rest of the country vehicular transport accounts for 60-70% of CO2 emissions so some here feel there might be significant flaws in the methodology.Even for a highly efficient cityand New York could be a lot more efficient, including cars & trucks at 20% percent share could be construed as statistically anomalous in the United States. This means the criteria in the model used for determing that percentage may have a built in bias or do not include certain data. Most of the organizations and individuals, involved in PLANNYC 2030 are well known in the context of activism and conservation in New York. All of the individuals who testified before Committee Chair Gennaro made concise, cogent and clear presentations in the 5 minutes alloted for testimony.

 

The Panel

One of the most forceful speakers was the Program Director of the Environmental Defense Fund, Mr Peter Goldmark. He pointed out that mobile sources account for a lot more of NYC's carbon signature than 20%, considerably more. Most likely in the range of 60%. He endorsed congestion pricing for Manhattan on the model of that which was introduced by Ken Livingstone, Mayor of London, a few years back and spoke of the need for better rapid transit and more bus service in the outer boros.
New York City will also play host to the Global Climate Summit. A symposium where the 40 largest cities in the world will get together and compare notes. This event will be sponsored by C40 Large Cities Group and will take place from May 14th to May 17th 2007 here in NYC.

Just in time
So the Mayor's proposed bottom line:

Build a green services industry

Provide more green job training

Build better buildings and rebuild existing ones.

Encourage emissions trading in the financial sector

Improve public transportation

Consider a congestion pricing scheme

Counting trees indeed. It may also be the Bloomberg Administration wishes to securitize and commoditize the carbon credit potential the 1000+ square mile watershed that fills New York Cities resevoirs and determine a way to do this for the trees lining the City's streets.
If so this will a first excercise in the sale of the carbon offset rights of land in a public trust as a security. Counting trees indeed and who owns the rights to the trees you planted in your front yard?